Environment and Climate Change Canada's climate forecasting system highlights concerning global warming trends Français

OTTAWA, ON, Jan. 15, 2025 /CNW/ - Global warming is a reality we all must navigate. Knowing how much temperatures are expected to increase is vital to effective planning when it comes to reducing emissions and adapting to our changing climate.

Today, the Government of Canada published its first publicly available annual global mean temperature forecast, predicting that 2025 will be warmer than every year on record prior to 2023.

The forecast anticipates a global mean temperature in the range of 1.35 °C to 1.55 °C above the pre-industrial value, meaning global temperatures in 2025 will remain at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 12th consecutive year. The forecast reaffirms that the significant increase in global temperatures over the past two years is not a temporary fluctuation, but a clear signal of the long-term global warming that is driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Looking ahead, Canada's climate model predicts the next five years will be the warmest five-year period on record.

The annual global mean temperature forecast is produced by the Government of Canada using the Canadian Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction System version 3. This system is designed to forecast seasonal climate conditions up to a year in advance. Results are currently updated monthly at weather.gc.ca to provide valuable insights into temperature, precipitation, and other key climate variables. Starting later in 2025, the Government of Canada will also begin publishing seasonal and decadal forecasts on ClimateData.ca.

Canada's first annual global mean temperature forecast marks a significant milestone in the Government's ability to provide important climate insights on a global scale, building on extensive expertise in climate modelling and analysis. This work supports planning in areas such as agriculture, disaster preparedness, water management, and climate adaptation.

The Government of Canada's seasonal to decadal forecasts help fill the gap between short-term weather forecasts and long-term climate projections, providing governments, researchers, and communities world-wide with vital data to better understand and prepare for the growing impacts of climate change. This data also underscores the urgent need to transition to a greener, more prosperous, low-carbon economy both in Canada and abroad.

Quotes

"Canadian communities and businesses are experiencing climate change impacts with greater intensity and frequency. These impacts affect infrastructure, health and well-being, culture, and the economy. The new publicly available global temperature forecast is part of the Government of Canada's commitment to provide trusted climate data. This helps decision-makers build stronger, more climate-resilient communities and economies to benefit all Canadians."

– The Honourable Steven Guilbeault, Minister of Environment and Climate Change

Quick facts

• The 2025 global mean temperature forecast predicts a range of 1.35 °C to 1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels (from 1850 to 1900), with a central estimate of 1.45 °C.
• There is a probability greater than 99% that 2025 will be hotter than every year on record prior to 2023.
• 2024 was the hottest year on record and the first to globally exceed the 1.5 °C threshold established by the Paris Agreement.
• Although global temperatures exceeded the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C threshold above pre-industrial levels in 2024, it does not mean that the Paris Agreement targets are breached. The threshold applies to long-term global temperature averages.
• Canada's global mean temperature forecast aligns with that of the United Kingdom's Met Office, despite using different prediction systems. This reinforces the reliability of these forecasts and means that governments, industry, and communities worldwide can use this data with confidence while planning for the impacts of a warming climate.

Associated links

• Climate Data
• Seasonal Forecasts
• Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
• Canadian Centre for Climate Services

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SOURCE Environment and Climate Change Canada

Contacts: Hermine Landry, Press Secretary, Office of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change, 873-455-3714, [email protected]; Media Relations, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 819-938-3338 or 1-844-836-7799 (toll-free), [email protected]